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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 PM PDT Tue Jun 02 2026

The system has not become significantly better organized since 
becoming a tropical cyclone earlier today.  A small area of deep 
convection has been persisting near and just west of the center of 
circulation, but convective banding features are limited at this 
time.  Cirrus cloud motions show fairly well-defined upper-level 
anticyclonic flow over the area.  The current intensity estimate is 
held at 25 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T1.5 from TAFB, an 
ADT estimate from CIMSS, and OSCAT data.

Center fixes indicate a slow, but generally northwestward, motion at 
around 310/3 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the system 
should cause a northwestward to west-northwestward movement at a 
slightly faster forward speed during the next few days.  A westward 
to southwestward turn is forecast in 3-5 days in response to a 
slight building of the ridge to the northwest.  The official track 
forecast is quite similar to that from the previous advisory, and in 
good agreement with the corrected consensus model guidance, HCCA.

Given the seemingly favorable upper-level winds and warm SSTs, some 
strengthening is predicted.  However, since the cyclone is embedded 
in an elongated convergence zone, this could impede significant 
intensification.  The official forecast shows modest strengthening 
over the next couple of days which is in general agreement with HCCA 
and the HAFS regional hurricane models.  Later in the forecast 
period, increasing vertical wind shear associated with 
south-southwesterly flow ahead of a large upper-level trough should 
lead to weakening.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z  9.7N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 10.2N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 11.1N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 12.0N 129.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 12.9N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 13.6N 132.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 13.9N 133.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 13.8N 134.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 13.3N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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