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Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025

The center of Sonia has become exposed on the southern side of a 
decreasing area of deep convection.  A scatterometer pass indicated 
lower winds (30-35 kt) within the circulation than the overnight 
pass, and conventional satellite estimates are also decreasing.  
Thus, the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.  

Sonia is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt through an increasingly 
dry and sheared environment across cooler SSTs.  Further slow 
weakening is anticipated while the system turns westward due to the 
low-level flow.  Global models suggest that Sonia has produced its 
last organized convective burst, which is consistent with the 
unfavorable environment.  Therefore, remnant low status is shown in 
12 hours.  The updated NHC track and intensity forecast is very 
similar to the previous one and the consensus/corrected-consensus 
aids.  The circulation is still forecast by the global models to 
open up into a trough in about 48 hours, therefore dissipation is 
shown at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 15.3N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 15.4N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 15.3N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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