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Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
Sonia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with a large area of deep 
convection located to the northwest of the low-level center.  There 
is little banding evident in conventional and recent microwave 
imagery.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based 
primarily on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak T-number of 2.5 
from TAFB.  Moderate to strong southern shear is expected to persist 
during the next couple of days while Sonia moves over gradually 
decreasing SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment.  These 
negative factors are expected to result in weakening and 
degeneration into a remnant low within 24 hours.  The circulation is 
forecast by the global models to open up into a trough in about 48 
hours, therefore dissipation is shown at that time.

Sonia is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 7 kt. A turn 
toward the west is expected later today as the cyclone becomes 
vertically shallow.  The updated NHC track is a blend of the latest 
Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the simple consensus aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 15.1N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 15.2N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 15.3N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  30/0000Z 15.1N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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