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Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
 
Satellite images show that the low-level center is exposed, with
southerly wind shear causing convection to be displaced to the
north. Satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 45 kt,
thus the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The system looks to have turned back towards the west at an 
estimated motion of 275/6 kt. This general motion should continue as 
the system weakens and becomes more shallow, and steered by the 
low-level wind flow. The NHC track was nudged slightly south 
towards the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind solution.
 
Sonia is moving into an increasingly unfavorable environment. Wind 
shear is expected to increase, with cooling SSTs, and drier air  
along the forecast track. This should lead to a gradual weakening 
trend, and model simulated IR satellite shows convection diminishing 
by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends with the 
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 36 h. The system is 
forecast to dissipate and open into a trough in two to three days.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 13.8N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 14.1N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 14.2N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/1200Z 14.2N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0000Z 14.0N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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