ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows a renewed burst of deep convection over and 
just north of the low-level circulation center during the past 
several hours, despite the steady southerly wind shear affecting it. 
Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak and objective intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward at about 285/6 kt, and this 
general motion is expected to persist today, as the subtropical 
ridge remains positioned to the north. By Tuesday, Sonia should 
gradually turn toward the west as it becomes a shallow system 
embedded within the low-level trade-wind flow. The NHC track 
forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains close 
to the multi-model consensus aids.
 
Although Sonia has been able to regenerate convection and may 
continue to do so intermittently during the next day or so, the 
unfavorable environment surrounding the system is expected to begin 
taking its toll soon. Moderate southerly shear, marginal sea-surface 
temperatures, and a drier, more stable environment along the 
forecast path should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows convection 
steadily diminishing by Tuesday, and Sonia is forecast to become a 
post-tropical remnant low by that time. Dissipation is expected to 
occur by midweek as the remnant low opens into a trough. The updated 
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and 
remains close to the consensus aids.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 14.2N 120.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 14.4N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 14.8N 124.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 14.8N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1800Z 14.7N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
NNNN