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Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Sonia has degraded during the past 
12 to 24 h as persistent moderate southerly wind shear has displaced 
deep convection mostly north of the low-level circulation center. 
The circulation is now partially exposed on the southern edge of the 
deep convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak and 
objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 40 
kt.
 
Sonia is moving west-northwestward at about 295/5 kt, and this 
general motion is expected to persist over the next day or so, as 
the subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north. By Tuesday, 
Sonia should gradually turn toward the west as it becomes a shallow 
system embedded within the low-level trade-wind flow. The NHC track 
forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains close 
to the multi-model consensus aids.

Moderate southerly wind shear continues to affect Sonia and is 
expected to generally hold steady during the next couple of days, if 
not increase slightly. This, combined with cooler waters and a 
drier, more stable environment ahead of the cyclone, should result 
in a gradual weakening trend beginning within the next 12 to 24 
hours. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF shows 
convection diminishing significantly by Tuesday, suggesting that 
Sonia will lose organized deep convection and become a post-tropical 
remnant low by that time. Dissipation is expected by Wednesday as 
the remnant low continues westward and opens into a trough. The 
updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus aids 
and remains similar to the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 14.1N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 14.3N 120.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 14.6N 121.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 14.8N 123.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 14.8N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1200Z 14.7N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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