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Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
Deep convection returned over the low-level center overnight, but 
over the last several hours satellite imagery shows the convective 
structure has become a little more broken. The low-level center is 
likely situated on the southern end of the convective shield due to 
southerly wind shear. The latest subjective satellite intensity 
estimates were both data-T 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 50 kt. Using 
these estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt for 
this advisory.

Sonia is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 280/03 kt. 
The system seems to be gradually turning towards the west-northwest 
towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, with a continued slow 
forward motion the next day or so. As the system begins to weaken 
and become a more shallow vortex, the system should turn back toward 
the west within the low-level wind flow at a sightly faster forward 
speed. The latest NHC forecast is slightly near the previous and 
lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and Google DeepMind 
solutions.

The storm will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, but will 
remain over warm sea surface temperatures for another day or so. 
Thus, little change in intensity is forecast, with the potential for 
some slight strengthening today. Beyond the 24-36 h time period, a 
weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear, and 
sea surface temperatures cooling along the forecast track. Water 
vapor satellite imagery shows abundant dry air to the west of the 
system and mid-level RH values drop into the 40 percent range in 2 
to 3 days. The combination of dry air and shear should cause the 
system to gradually lose convection, and become a remnant low by 60 
hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model 
simulated IR satellite solutions, and the latest NHC intensity 
forecast follows these trends, with the remnant low dissipating by 
the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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