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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025
 
The depression has changed little over the past several hours. 
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown deep convection 
periodically forming near the center, with a broad, loose band 
wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  Subjective 
Dvorak estimates remain at T2.0 and the initial intensity is held at 
30 kt for this advisory.

During the next couple of days, environmental and oceanic conditions 
are expected to be conducive for gradual strengthening.  The sea 
surface temperatures should be between 27-26 deg C, with 
light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level 
humdities.  Around 48 to 60 h, global models suggest the wind shear 
should gradually increase, inducing a gradual weakening trend.  By 
the end of the forecast period, cooling ocean waters and 
increasingly dry air are expected reduce and dissipate the deep, 
organized convection.  GFS and ECMWF are suggesting this may occur 
sooner, and the official forecast now shows the depression becoming 
a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  
 
The estimated motion of the depression is 270 degrees at 7 kt.  A 
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should be the main 
steering feature for the next 5 days, which will initially continue 
its westward heading with a decreasing forward speed.  By the end of 
the weekend, an amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough 
should slightly weaken the ridge, causing the system to bend 
west-northwestward.  As the vortex becomes more shallow by the end 
of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn back 
westward in the low-level flow.  The latest official forecast has 
been nudged to the north, and lies between the HCCA and the previous 
prediction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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