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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Over the past few days, the area of low pressure that the National 
Hurricane Center has been monitoring, located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, has 
gradually become better organized and has now acquired a 
well-defined circulation center.  Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS microwave 
passes revealed developing curved bands (-70C cloud tops) to the 
north and south of the depression's center.  The Dvorak intensity 
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0 (30 kt), and a fortuitous 
METOP-B scatterometer overpass indicates maximum sustained winds of 
25-30 kt.  Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical 
Depression Eighteen-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Although the depression is expected to remain over warm SSTs, a 
marginally favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment and 
moderate west-southwesterly shear should hamper significant 
development.  Accordingly, gradual strengthening is expected during 
the next 72 hours.  After that time, the depression is expected to 
traverse progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and 
commence a gradual weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast 
closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA Corrected Consensus 
intensity aids and shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 5 
days.  

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 
270/11 kt.  A west-to-east-oriented subtropical ridge located to 
the north of the depression should steer the cyclone in a generally 
westward or west-northwestward heading during the next 5 days.  By 
Saturday, however, the depression is forecast to slow in forward 
speed in response to a slight weakening of the ridge while an 
amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough approaches the 
southwest U.S. coast/Baja California offshore waters.  Over the 
remaining portion of the period, the depression is forecast to 
degenerate into a remnant low while continuing generally westward in 
the low-level trade wind flow.  The official track forecast lies 
between the better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean 
guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 13.2N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 13.3N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 14.1N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 15.4N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 15.2N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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