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Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows that the convective structure of Priscilla 
has become more ragged this morning. The degradation is due 
to increasing southwesterly wind shear, and drier air, as seen on 
water vapor imagery, being advected into the system. Satellite 
intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt. Using these estimates, 
in combination with the scatterometer data overnight, and recent 
satellite presentation, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Priscilla is moving slowly northward at an estimated motion of 
360/5 kt. This general motion with a slight turn to the 
north-northeast is anticipated today and tonight. The latest NHC 
track forecast is basically an update of the previous.
 
Although Priscilla has been resilient, it seems to be succumbing to 
the unfavorable environment. Moderate to strong southwesterly shear 
of 20 to 30 kt, with drier mid-level air being advected into the 
circulation and cool sea surface temperatures should induce further 
weakening. Convection is already started to dissipate and global 
models show that the system will struggle to produce convection by 
tonight and open into a trough by Saturday. The new NHC intensity 
forecast follows these trends with the system expected to become 
post-tropical in 12h, and then dissipate by 24h.
 
Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary
hazard across portions of southwestern United States.  Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding are likely into the weekend over parts
of central Arizona and southwest Utah, with scattered areas of flash
flooding possible across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah,
southwestern Colorado, and far northwestern New Mexico.  Please
monitor forecasts and updates from local National Weather Service
offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and from the Weather
Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 25.9N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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