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Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
800 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows that Priscilla 
continues to lose deep convection with warming cloud tops. Water 
vapor imagery shows that drier air has wrapped into the inner core, 
with only limited convection remaining in outer rainbands. Satellite 
intensity estimates have continued to decrease, and the initial 
intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.
 
Priscilla is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of 
330/7 kt. As the system continues to spin down and become a shallow 
vortex, a turn toward the north and eventually north-northeast 
within the low-level flow is anticipated. The storm is expected to 
slow down, stall, and dissipate offshore the west coast of Baja 
California.
 
Sea surface temperatures continue to cool along the track of 
Priscilla, with drier mid-level air mixing into the center. A 
weakening trend is likely to continue and Priscilla is anticipated 
to struggle to produce organized convection. This should result in 
Priscilla becoming a post-tropical cyclone within 24 hours.  
Although, if current trends continue with waning convection 
Priscilla could become a post-tropical remnant low earlier than 
forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these latest 
trends in the global model suite, and lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.

Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary 
hazard associated with the system across portions of Southwestern 
United States. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is likely into the 
weekend over portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of 
flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern 
Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico. Please 
follow forecast updates from local National Weather Service 
forecast offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and the 
Weather Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to a significant 
heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of Arizona, 
southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico 
through Saturday.
 
2.  Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 23.8N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 24.8N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 25.9N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  11/0000Z 26.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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