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Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

Some convection has re-developed in association with Priscilla, 
mainly in disorganized bands well removed from the center. This 
convection is not well-enough organized to keep the satellite 
intensity estimates from decreasing.  Based on these decreases since 
the previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/8 kt. As 
mentioned previously, Priscilla is moving along the southwestern 
side of a mid-level high pressure ridge near the Texas/Mexico 
border.  In 24 h or so, a large mid-latitude trough or cutoff low 
near the California coast should cause a northward turn. By 48 h, 
Priscilla will likely have weakened into a shallow cyclone steered 
by the low-level flow, which is rather weak.  The track guidance has 
not changed significantly since the last advisory, and the new 
forecast track is very similar to the previous track.

The forecast track takes Priscilla over colder sea surface 
temperatures and into a drier environment, and these factors should 
cause continued weakening. The latest simulated satellite imagery 
from the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the cyclone to stop producing 
convection in about 36 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for 
the system to decay to a remnant low at that time.  The remnant low 
is still shown as dissipating by 72 h in agreement with the global 
models. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous 
forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California
Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area for the 
next several hours.  Interests elsewhere in the Baja California 
peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla.
 
2.  Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to heavy rainfall 
and a flash flood risk across portions of Arizona, southern Utah, 
through the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest 
New Mexico from Thursday into Saturday. 
 
3.  Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific 
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of the coast of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition 
to some coastal flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 22.6N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 23.4N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 24.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 25.7N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1200Z 27.2N 114.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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