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Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
800 PM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

The satellite appearance of Priscilla has become more ragged since 
the last advisory, with very deep but asymmetric convection in the 
southeastern portion of the hurricane's eyewall.  While there have 
been no recent microwave images to confirm, it does appear that the 
hurricane is still having trouble becoming vertically stacked.  The 
initial intensity remains 65 kt, which remains close to a consensus 
of various estimates.  

There is no change to the initial motion, 330/3 kt, with Priscilla 
moving slowly due to a distant ridge.  A track more to the 
northwest with some acceleration is expected by late tomorrow as 
ridging becomes better established over Mexico.  There continues to 
be a lot of spread in the guidance, with the GFS continuing to
be on the far south and west side of the guidance envelope, and the
ECMWF on the north and east side.  The new forecast remains on the 
northern side of the guidance envelope, closest to a blend of the 
NOAA corrected consensus aid HCCA and the Google DeepMind ensemble 
GDMI.

Moderate northeasterly shear persists near Priscilla, which is 
probably causing the less organized current structure.  Model 
guidance is fairly consistent that the hurricane will adjust to 
this shear given the other very conducive conditions including warm 
waters and high mid-level humidities, causing gradual 
strengthening.  The chances for rapid intensification should be 
monitored in case Priscilla gets a tighter inner core.  The new 
forecast is very similar to the previous one, on the higher side of 
the intensity consensus.  Significant weakening is expected to 
start in about 3 days due to the hurricane moving across a sharp 
SST gradient into cool waters. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico within the watch area through Monday.
Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should also
monitor the progress of Priscilla.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Monday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.
 
3.  Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach the coasts of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 16.7N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.3N 107.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.1N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 19.1N 109.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 20.0N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 21.0N 112.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 22.1N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 24.3N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 26.3N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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