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Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Deep convection around Mario has dissipated with an exposed center 
visible on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass 
indicates Mario has weakened to a depression, and thus the initial 
intensity was lowered to 30 kt.
 
Visible satellite imagery has allowed for a more precise initial 
position of Mario for this advisory, with the location continuing 
the trend of being a bit farther southwest than anticipated. As 
Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the 
expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow 
down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. 
This should result in the low-level circulation staying farther 
west and the mid-level remnants going northward. An initial 
westward adjustment was made to the track to account for the 
farther southwest initial position, otherwise minimal changes were 
made to the previous track.
 
Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and
increasing shear. Given the lack of convection, the expectation is 
that Mario will become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. 
Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 36-48 h.
 
While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to
the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther
north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid
to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash
flooding will be possible by Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 23.0N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
 
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