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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

Satellite images show that Mario has changed little since the 
previous advisory, though recently the deep convection has been 
bursting near the center.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
remain near 45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS generally 
a little higher.  Thus, the current intensity will remain 50 kt for 
this advisory. 

Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 300 degrees, at 10 kt.  A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over 
northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest.  The biggest 
question is what happens to the remnants of Mario in a few days, 
with the models in poor agreement on whether it turns more to the 
north, like the GFS, or towards the west, like the HWRF or GDMI.  
For now, the official forecast will stay closer to the westernmost 
model cluster and assume the weak cyclone doesn't feel stronger 
mid-level southerly flow.  The new forecast is a touch to the 
right of the previous one.  

The storm has a limited window for any strengthening within light 
shear conditions and warm waters. However, there are plenty of 
stable stratocumulus clouds on satellite just northwest of the 
circulation, suggesting it doesn't have much time left for 
intensification.  By Tuesday, Mario should begin to weaken as it 
crosses over much cooler waters with higher shear.  Mario should 
lose all deep convection after 36h and become a remnant low by 48h. 
The new NHC forecast prediction is slightly decreased from the last 
one and ends up pretty close to the model consensus. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 20.0N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam
 
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