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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Mario has improved since the previous 
advisory, with a burst of deep convection and very cold cloud tops 
persisting over the low-level center.  Upper-level outflow appears 
well established in all quadrants, and more defined curved banding 
is developing on the northern side of the convective burst. 
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 
2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 
have ranged from 40 to 60 kt and have been trending upward.  A blend 
of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance, 
supports raising the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.
 
Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 10 kt.  A 
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple 
of days as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern 
Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest.  Forward speed should 
decrease after 48 h as Mario weakens and becomes more influenced by 
the low-level flow.  The forecast track is close to the previous one 
through 24 h, then shifts slightly eastward thereafter to better 
match the consensus guidance.  The track is closest to the GDMI aid, 
which lies between the consensus and the prior forecast.
 
Mario will remain in a moist, low-shear environment over warm waters 
for the next 12 h, which should allow for some additional 
strengthening.  Thereafter, the cyclone will move near the 26C 
isotherm and encounter increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind 
shear, initiating a weakening trend.  Steady weakening is then 
expected as Mario moves over cooler waters and into stronger shear. 
The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 h, 
with dissipation likely by 96 h. The official intensity forecast is 
near the upper end of the guidance through 24 h, then trends toward 
the consensus thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 19.4N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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