ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

The overall organization of Mario has been relatively steady through 
the afternoon and evening. Wind observations from Socorro Island 
indicate that the center of the tropical storm is passing north of 
the island. Recent satellite imagery suggests easterly wind shear 
has been tilting Mario's vortex and displacing deep convection to 
the west of the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates of 
3.0/45 kt from TAFB, 2.5/35 kt from SAB, and observed winds on 
Socorro Islands support maintaining the initial intensity of Mario 
at 40 kt for this advisory. The data from Socorro Island, which was 
within 30 n mi of the center, emphasize Mario's small size, with 
reported sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 27 kt since the last 
advisory.

The initial position proved difficult to analyze, however the data 
from Socorro Island have helped to pin down the location of the 
low-level center, which matches the previous forecast track. The 
cyclone is moving slightly faster to the west-northwest at 295/8 kt. 
This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario 
is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The 
track forecast is largely the same as the previous one through the 
next 36 hrs, then adjusted slightly east in line with the latest 
consensus aids.
 
Mario is still forecast to slightly intensify over the next 24 
hours, as it moves through an environment of warm sea surface 
temperatures, plentiful mid-level moisture, and low shear. The 
earlier bout of easterly shear may already be subsiding, as a new 
convective burst begins closer to the cyclone's low-level center. 
The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, in agreement 
with the consensus aids. Beyond 24 hours, Mario will cross the 26C 
isotherm, southwesterly wind shear will increase, and mid-level 
moisture will diminish. This unfavorable environment should cause 
Mario to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low 
by 60 hours, with dissipation by around 96 hours.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 19.2N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney
 
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