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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 09 2025
 
A new convective burst has developed in association with Kiko, with 
the strongest convection currently just north of the low-level 
center. Scatterometer data received since the last advisory 
indicated at least 35 kt winds in the northern semicircle, and 
based on this and the current convective trends the initial 
intensity is held at 35 kt.

While the center of Kiko turned a little to the left during the past 
several hours, the longer-term motion remains west-northwestward at 
285/12 kt.  Kiko is expected to continue a general 
west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed 
during the next three days as it is steered by low-level easterly 
flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge.  The new forecast 
track is adjusted a little to the left of the previous track based 
on the initial position, and it lies near or just north of the 
various consensus models.
 
The cyclone is forecast to remain within a high shear environment 
over the next 12-18 h, and it is expected that Kiko will weaken to a 
depression during that time.  After that, while the shear weakens 
for a time, the upper-level flow becomes convergent and the airmass 
around the cyclone is quite dry.  This combination should eventually 
stop the associated convection, and Kiko is expected to degenerate 
to a remnant low by 48 h. The system is expected to dissipate  
completely between 72-96 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands tonight
and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest
forecasts.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
tonight through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 22.9N 156.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 23.4N 158.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 24.1N 160.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 24.8N 162.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 25.6N 164.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 26.2N 166.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z 26.7N 168.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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