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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025
 
Kiko has continued to weaken this morning in a high shear 
environment, with deep convection being displaced well north of the 
exposed low-level center. The latest trends in both subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, 
ranging from 25 to 45 kt. Given the trends with these estimates, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. 
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 
290/13 kt. The system has decoupled and the shallow vortex is being 
steered along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. 
This west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated 
throughout the forecast period. The official forecast track is 
similar to the previous, with maybe a slight nudge to the left in 
the short term, and lies near the HCCA corrected-consensus and 
Google DeepMind aids.

Southwesterly shear continues to takes its toll on Kiko, displacing 
any convection to the north. The shear is expected to remain high 
over the next 24 hours. Shear decreases slightly between 48-60 h, 
with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. Forecast 
simulated satellite imagery shows that occasional bursts of 
convection are possible and Kiko may be able to sustain its tropical 
cyclone status. Beyond 60 h, shear increases once again and the 
system should continue to weaken and dissipate. The latest NHC 
forecast shows the system continuing to weaken and given the 
increased shear again at 60 h, the system is now expected to become 
a post-tropical cyclone. Global models depict the system slowly 
spinning down and the official forecast follows those trends, 
showing the cyclone dissipating by the end of the forecast period. 
It is noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon 
as models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than 
officially forecast.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today
and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest
forecasts.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak 
today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 22.4N 153.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 23.1N 155.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 23.7N 157.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 24.4N 160.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 25.4N 162.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 26.2N 164.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 26.7N 166.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 28.2N 168.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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