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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 08 2025
 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko this 
afternoon measured maximum flight-level winds of 84 kt at 700 mb and 
a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. These data, along with 
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates of 3.5/55 kt from SAB, 
HFO, and JTWC, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 35 
to 54 kt, indicate that Kiko has weakened further. Satellite imagery 
shows the low-level center becoming increasingly exposed, with deep 
convection sheared off to the north and northeast and little or no 
convection remaining in the southern semicircle. Based on a blend of 
the aircraft and satellite estimates, and accounting for the 
continued weakening trend since the last fixes, the initial 
intensity is set at a possibly generous 65 kt, keeping Kiko a 
Category 1 hurricane for now. Another aircraft mission is scheduled 
for later this evening and should provide additional confirmation of 
Kiko’s intensity.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko 
continuing to be steered around the southwestern periphery of a 
subtropical ridge. This motion should persist through the next 12–24 
hours, after which Kiko’s increasingly shallow circulation will 
become more influenced by the low- to mid-level ridge to the north. 
This evolution is expected to result in a gradual but continued 
west-northwestward to northwestward trajectory as the cyclone passes 
north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. The track 
guidance remains in good agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is 
again very close to the previous one, staying near a blend of the 
multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean 
(GDMI).

The southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Kiko has increased 
beyond earlier predictions, now estimated at 35–40 kt, and this has 
accelerated the weakening trend. This elevated shear is forecast to 
persist through Tuesday, maintaining a highly unfavorable 
environment for Kiko. As a result, Kiko will likely be downgraded to 
a tropical storm later this evening or overnight as additional 
reconnaissance data become available. Beyond 48 hours, SHIPS 
guidance still indicates a brief decrease in shear while sea surface 
temperatures rise slightly to near 27 C, which could slow the 
weakening rate somewhat. The new NHC intensity forecast remains 
close to the middle of the guidance envelope, showing Kiko becoming 
a tropical storm within the next 12 hours and continuing to 
gradually weaken thereafter.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
continues to decrease, interests should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecasts.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to
west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
tonight through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts  
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 21.6N 150.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 22.5N 152.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 23.4N 155.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 24.2N 157.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 25.0N 160.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 25.8N 162.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 26.4N 164.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 28.2N 167.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 30.1N 169.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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