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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 08 2025

The convective structure of Hurricane Kiko continues to degrade, 
with IR satellite imagery depicting a gradual warming of cloud tops, 
with convection become more ragged. Furthermore, a WSF-M microwave 
pass at 1625 UTC showed the core of the circulation tilting with 
height toward the north. The most recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observed maximum flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 
mb in the northeast quadrant, suggesting that Kiko has maintained 
its intensity, despite the continued structural degradation. 
Assuming a slightly lower than typical 0.85 reduction factor at 700 
mb, the intensity for this advisory is maintained at 75 kt, which is 
higher than both Dvorak and objective satellite intensity estimates. 
The most recent aircraft pass through the northwest quadrant 
indicated a strongly tilted vortex, with enhanced convection in the 
downshear-left quadrant.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, with its estimated motion 
at 305/13 kt. For the next 12-24 hours this motion should continue 
as Kiko continues to be steered around the southwestern periphery of 
a subtropical ridge. However, as Kiko continues to experience strong 
southwesterly vertical wind shear, the vertical depth of the system 
is expected to decrease, with the more shallow circulation becoming 
subsequently steered by the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to 
the north. This evolution is forecast to result in a gradual 
leftward turn but still west-northwestward as Kiko passes the 
longitude of the Hawaiian islands. The track guidance remains in 
good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is very close to 
the prior forecast, remaining close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE 
consensus and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI).
 
The strong southwesterly vertical wind shear above 25 kts is 
expected to continue through 48 hours. Beyond that, SHIPS guidance 
suggests a brief decrease in shear from 48 to 72 hours, after which 
the shear increases again but shifting 180 degrees from 
southwesterly to northeasterly. Dry air continues to surround the 
circulation of Kiko, particularly upshear, which in light of the 
current shear, will accelerate the ventilation of the core 
convection. Weakening is forecast through the forecast period. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the middle of the guidance 
envelope through the 5 day period.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday.  While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
continues to decrease, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late today through the middle of the week, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen to the latest updates
and potential High Surf Warnings issued from the National Weather
Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 21.0N 149.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 21.8N 151.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 23.0N 154.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 24.8N 159.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 25.5N 161.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 26.1N 163.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 27.5N 167.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 29.5N 169.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Shieh/Papin
 
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