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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 07 2025
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko 
this evening measured a minimum central pressure of 982 mb and a 
maximum flight-level wind of 96 kt. These data indicate that Kiko 
has continued to weaken, with satellite imagery showing the 
low-level center near the southwestern edge of the deep convection 
in response to about 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Based on a 
blend of the aircraft data, satellite trends, and the various 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at a 
possibly generous 85 kt.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko 
remaining on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This 
steering pattern should keep the cyclone on a general 
west-northwestward to northwestward trajectory through the next 
couple of days. Kiko is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian 
Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable track models 
remain in good agreement on this scenario. The official forecast is 
essentially unchanged from the previous cycle and remains close to 
the consensus aids. Based on the new forecast and accounting for 
typical errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance of 
tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location on the Hawaiian 
Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required or expected at 
this time.

Kiko is expected to continue weakening at an accelerated rate during 
the next 24 hours as southwesterly shear strengthens to 30–35 kt 
while the cyclone remains over marginal sea surface temperatures. 
Under these increasingly hostile conditions, the system should 
weaken to tropical storm strength by late Monday. If Kiko is 
able to withstand the peak shear period, some moderation in the 
weakening rate is possible later in the forecast as it moves over 
slightly warmer waters near 27 C and vertical wind shear decreases. 
The current intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday.  While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 19.6N 147.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 20.5N 149.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 21.7N 151.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 22.9N 154.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 24.7N 159.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 25.3N 161.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 26.8N 165.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 28.8N 168.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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