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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 07 2025

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko 
this afternoon measured a minimum central pressure of 974 mb and a 
maximum flight-level wind of 103 kt. The satellite presentation has 
held fairly steady since, though some deterioration of the southwest 
quadrant has been noted as southwesterly shear of around 20 kt has 
started to affect the cyclone. Recent aircraft fixes also suggest a 
slight northeastward tilt of the vortex in response to the shear. 
Subjective Dvorak estimates ranged from T4.5/77 kt at SAB and JTWC 
to T5.0/90 kt at HFO, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS were 
between 77 and 88 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the modest 
satellite changes, the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt 
for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko 
remaining on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Based 
on this steering pattern, Kiko is expected to pass north of the 
Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable 
track models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The official 
forecast is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast and 
remains close to the consensus aids. Given the new forecast and 
accounting for typical errors, there is currently less than a 10 
percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any 
location in the Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not 
required or expected at this time.
 
Cooler waters and increasing shear supports additional weakening 
during the next 12–24 hours, with Kiko likely to fall below 
hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night. The shear is 
forecast to peak near 30–35 kt between 24 and 48 hours, which should 
accelerate the weakening trend. If Kiko is able to withstand that 
period, some moderation in the weakening rate is possible later in 
the forecast as the cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters near 
27 C while also accompanied by a decrease in vertical wind shear. 
The current intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday 
and Wednesday.  While the risk of direct impacts on the islands 
appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor 
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are 
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands 
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening 
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible 
warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.9N 146.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 19.7N 148.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 20.9N 150.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 22.1N 152.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 23.3N 155.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 24.2N 158.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 25.2N 160.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 27.0N 165.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 28.6N 168.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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