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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025
 
Kiko's satellite presentation became more impressive during the 
afternoon hours, with a well-defined eye surrounded by a large, 
symmetric ring of very cold cloud tops. This annular structure has 
allowed the hurricane to re-strengthen despite surrounding dry air 
and marginal sea surface temperatures as it gradually gains 
latitude. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates have 
increased, with HFO at 6.5/127 kt and SAB at 6.0/115 kt. Objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS are also climbing back to as high as 115 kt. 
Based on a blend of these data and the satellite appearance, the 
initial intensity is set at 120 kt, making Kiko a Category 4 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale once again.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt. 
The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a mid-level 
ridge, while a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii is eroding 
the ridge’s western extent. This pattern should maintain a 
west-northwestward to northwestward track through the weekend. By 
early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), as Kiko weakens and becomes 
more vertically shallow, the cyclone will be steered more by the 
low-level flow, which should induce a gradual turn toward the west 
while keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The 
latest forecast track lies just to the right of the previous NHC 
forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the 
consensus aids.

Kiko may hold Category 4 strength into the evening, but gradual 
weakening is expected to begin overnight, with it likely falling  
below major hurricane status by Sunday night. However, its annular 
structure introduces some uncertainty regarding the exact rate of 
weakening over the next 12–24 hours. Beyond Monday, the combined 
effects of increasing mid-level dry air and strengthening 
west-southwesterly shear should accelerate the weakening process. By 
days 3 to 5, Kiko is forecast to be a much weaker, shallow, and 
sheared system as it passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. The 
official forecast remains above most of the short-term guidance, 
then trends closer to the consensus aids later in the period.
 
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later this evening and will provide a better look at Kiko's 
intensity and structure.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 16.5N 142.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.2N 143.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.2N 145.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 19.5N 148.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.8N 150.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 22.1N 152.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 23.2N 154.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 24.8N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.8N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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