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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Kiko has shown significant improvement 
since the last advisory, with the eye clearing out and its coldest 
cloud tops more fully encircling it.  The most recent subjective 
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T6.0/115 
kt and T5.5/102 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been 
increasing, with the latest ADT estimate up to to 115 knots.  
Considering the continuing improvement since the time of the 1800 
UTC fixes, the intensity has been set at 115 kts, which could be 
conservative as the eye continues to clear out. 
 
Kiko continues to move to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 9 
kt.  The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the 
cyclone is eroding due to a developing upper-level low north of 
Hawaii.  This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual 
increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko 
moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge and 
towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands.  The track forecast has shifted northward due to 
the slightly more northward initial motion, and poleward shift in 
the track guidance. Based on the forecast track Kiko is expected to 
cross 140W into the central Pacific Ocean overnight into Saturday 
morning.  The track forecast remains close to the HCCA consensus 
aid. By the end of the forecast track, Kiko may turn more westward 
as it becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. 
 
The hurricane will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 12 
hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear 
embedded in a drier than normal mid-level environment. These 
environmental factors should keep Kiko a smaller than average sized 
storm as the dry air prevents more prominent outer rain bands from 
forming. Conditions still appear favorable for additional 
intensification, so the latest intensity and given the current 
improving structure, more intensification is shown than before, well 
above all of the available guidance.  This forecast also fits in 
with the possibility for Kiko developing annular structure which 
could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance.  
Thereafter, Kiko will move over cooler waters and an even drier 
mid-level environment.  After 48 hours, west-southwesterly vertical 
wind shear increases steadily, exceeding 30 kt by Wednesday. This 
shear may help import the nearby environmental dry air into Kiko's 
small core. Thus, rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone is 
forecast as Kiko passes to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands by 
the end of the forecast. After the initial bump in short-term 
intensity, this forecast trends back to the middle of the consensus 
envelope early next week, and then trends lower by the end of the 
forecast period.

Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 14.5N 137.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 14.9N 139.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 15.6N 141.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 17.2N 145.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 18.2N 147.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 19.4N 149.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 21.7N 153.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 23.7N 158.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin
 
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