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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Kiko has slowly deteriorated this 
evening, with the eye remaining mostly obscured by a central dense 
overcast with cloud top temperatures of -65 to -80C.  A timely 
05/0313Z WSFM microwave pass was helpful in locating the low-level 
center of Kiko, with the image also showing hints that an outer 
eyewall may be forming as part of an eyewall replacement cycle, 
which is possible considering the favorable environmental conditions 
the cyclone is traversing at the moment.  The most recent 
conventional satellite images seem to lend credence to this 
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, with an eye beginning 
to re-develop and a deep convective ring developing around it.  The 
most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB 
and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the 
objective AiDT and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 
98 and 115 kt through the evening.  Based on a blend of these data 
and accounting for recent satellite trends, the initial intensity 
has been held at 110 kt for this advisory, with Kiko remaining a 
strong category 3 hurricane.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt.  A gradual turn 
toward the west-northwest is expected to begin later tonight or 
Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of 
the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. 
This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase 
in forward speed is forecast through the weekend and into early next 
week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical 
ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low 
to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  The latest 
track forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast through 
day 3 due to a delay in Kiko’s west-northwest turn, then very 
similar to the previous track on days 4 and 5.  The track forecast 
is closest to the TVCE and EMXI aids and to the south of the HCCA 
and FSSE consensus.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours, 
while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear, 
although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level 
environment.  Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving 
through, the other factors appear favorable for some slight 
intensification, provided that the eyewall replacement cycle which 
is likely ongoing, completes.  From 24 hours to 60 hours, Kiko will 
move over slightly cooler waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier 
mid-level environment with humidity levels below 50 percent.  These 
less favorable conditions should lead to gradual weakening of the 
system, despite the continued very light vertical wind shear.  
Beginning on day 3 and continuing through day 5, the cyclone will be 
move over cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with 
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear ramping up steadily to more 
than 30 kt by day 5, and mid-level moisture will plummet below 40 
percent.  The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid 
weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands 
from the east-southeast.  The official intensity forecast has been 
lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on 
the higher end of the intensity aids through 60 hours, due to the 
continued potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics.  
The intensity forecast then trends closer middle of the intensity 
consensus envelop by days 3 through 5, with Kiko forecast to be a 
tropical storm by day 5 as it moves very close to the eastern end of 
the Hawaiian Island chain.  
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 13.9N 136.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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