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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Kiko has degraded considerably since 
the previous advisory, with the once warm and nearly cloud free eye, 
now obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures 
of -65 to -80C.  Given the mostly favorable environment that the 
cyclone is traversing, it is likely that Kiko is once again 
undergoing an eyewall replacement.  The most recent subjective 
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt 
and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS have ranged between 101 and 117 kt during the past several 
hours.  Based on a blend of these data and accounting for the 
degradation in satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been 
lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, and Kiko is now a category 3 
hurricane.

Kiko is moving just north of due west, or 275 degrees, at 8 kt.  A 
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and 
Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of 
the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. 
This general motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed 
is forecast to continue over the weekend and through early next 
week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical 
ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low 
to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  The latest 
track forecast is very close to the previous forecast through 60 
hours, and slightly to the north of the previous forecast for days 3 
through 5, following the latest guidance trends.  The track forecast 
is closest to the TVCE consensus aid, and is to the south of the 
HCCA and FSSE consensus aids.  

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours, 
while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear and in a 
somewhat drier than optimal mid-level environment.  Despite the dry 
mid-level airmass, the mostly favorable environment could lead to 
some slight intensification tonight and Friday, provided that the 
eyewall replacement cycle which is likely ongoing, completes.  
Beyond 24 hours through day 3, Kiko will move over slightly cooler 
waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier mid-level environment with 
humidity levels below 50 percent.  Despite very light vertical wind 
shear, these less favorable conditions should lead to gradual 
weakening of the cyclone.  By days 4 and 5, Kiko will be moving over 
cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with west-southwesterly 
vertical wind shear ramping up to more than 30 kt by day 5, while 
mid-level moisture also plummets below 40 percent.  The increasingly 
hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of Kiko as the 
cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast.  
The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the 
previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end or slightly 
above the intensity aids through day 3 due to the continued 
potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics.  The 
intensity forecast then trends closer to the intensity consensus aid 
HCCA by days 4 and 5, with Kiko forecast to be a tropical storm by 
day 5 as it nears the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain.   
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 13.9N 135.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 15.3N 140.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 16.0N 142.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 16.7N 144.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 17.6N 146.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 19.3N 150.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 21.0N 154.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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