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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Kiko has degraded some since the 
previous advisory, with the eye now mostly obscured by a central 
dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80C.  Given 
the favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, it is 
likely that Kiko is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle at the 
moment.  The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt 
respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have 
ranged between 111 and 132 kt during the past several hours.  Based 
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been held at 125 
kt for this advisory, and Kiko remains a very powerful category 4 
hurricane.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 7 kt.  
This general westward motion is expected to continue through 
Thursday, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge 
to its north and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is 
forecast by Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins 
to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this 
general motion then continuing over the weekend and into early next 
week, along with a gradual increase in forward speed.  There remains 
some along-track and cross track spread among the global models, 
although the spread has decreased considerably during the past 24 
hours.  A very slight northward adjustment has been made to the 
official track forecast, which remains in good agreement with a 
blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. 

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly 
light vertical wind shear through around 60 hours.  The surrounding 
environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, 
hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple of days, 
before dropping below 50 percent by 60 hours.  Despite the somewhat 
dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea 
surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major hurricane 
through day 3.  There will likely be some fluctuations in strength 
during the next several days with the potential for eyewall 
replacement cycles during this time.  By days 4 and 5, the cyclone 
will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing 
westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting 
below 40 percent.  These factors should lead to steady and 
eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the 
Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast.  Kiko will be influenced 
by environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular 
characteristics during the next few days along its approach, which 
can slow the rate of weakening.  As a result, the official intensity 
forecast remains on the higher end or slightly above the intensity 
aids through day 5, and is very similar to the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 13.7N 133.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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