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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025
 
Kiko remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, with satellite images 
showing a well-defined eye surrounded by a very cold ring of deep 
convection with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -85C.  The most 
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt respectively, while the objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 119 and 132 kt during 
the past several hours.  Based on a blend of these data, the initial 
intensity has been raised to 125 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 8 kt.  
This general westward motion is expected to continue through 
Thursday night, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical 
ridge to its north and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest 
is forecast on Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii 
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with 
this general motion then continuing through the weekend with a 
gradual increase in forward speed.  There remains some along-track  
and cross track spread among the global models, although the spread 
has decreased considerably during the past 24 hours.  The official 
track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest 
multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of, but slightly 
slower than, the previous forecast track.
 
Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly 
light vertical wind shear through around 60 to 72 hours.  The 
surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than 
optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple 
of days, before dropping below 50 percent by day 3.  Despite the 
somewhat dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and 
warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major 
hurricane through day 3.  There will likely be some fluctuations in 
strength during the next several days with the potential for eyewall 
replacement cycles during this time.  By days 4 and 5, the cyclone 
will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing 
westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting 
below 40 percent.  These factors should lead to steady and 
eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the 
Hawaiian Islands from the east.  Kiko will be influenced by 
environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular 
characteristics along its approach, which can slow the rate of 
weakening.  As a result, the official intensity forecast remains on 
the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 5, 
and is very close to the previous advisory.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 13.8N 132.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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