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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Kiko has improved since the previous 
advisory, with what appears to be a developing inner-core and hints 
of an eye evident at times in infrared satellite images.  The most 
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were both 4.0/65 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have 
ranged between 53 and 71 kt during the past several hours, and have 
been trending upwards.  Therefore, the initial intensity for this 
advisory has been raised to 65 kt, making Kiko a category 1 
hurricane.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt.  This general 
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the 
cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and 
northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4 
and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the 
western portion of the subtropical ridge.  It should be noted that 
there remains considerable along-track spread among the global 
models, although the GFS and ECMWF day 5 positions have come into 
much better agreement since the previous model cycle.  The official 
track forecast remains in good agreement with the latest multi-model 
consensus aids and is very close to the previous advisory through 60 
hours, then slightly to the north of the previous track forecast 
from day 3 onward.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly 
light vertical wind shear through day 4.  The surrounding 
environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a somewhat limiting 
factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between 
50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by 
days 4 and 5.  The latest intensity guidance has trended 
significantly higher from the previous model cycle, and the official 
forecast reflects this change and has been nudged upward 
accordingly.  The official intensity forecast remains on the higher 
end of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with the 
FSSE intensity consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 13.8N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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