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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Kiko has changed little since the 
previous advisory package.  The cyclone appears to be in the process 
of establishing a more well-defined inner-core structure, with 
glimpses of an eye evident at times in visible satellite images.  
The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from 
TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 kt, respectively, while the 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 45 and 57 kt 
during the past several hours.  Taking a blend of these data, the 
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 kt.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 6 kt.  
This general motion is expected to continue during the next several 
days as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to 
its north and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is 
forecast by days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii 
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge.  It 
should be noted that there remains considerable along-track spread 
among the global models — nearly 500 n mi by 120 hours — with the 
CMC the farthest east, the UKMET the farthest west, and the 
GFS/ECMWF solutions falling in between.  The official track forecast 
remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids 
and is slightly north of the previous advisory.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly 
light vertical wind shear through day 5.  The surrounding 
environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a limiting factor for 
significant intensification, however, remaining between 50 and 60 
percent and trending gradually lower through day 5.  Additionally, 
the slow-moving nature of Kiko and proximity to cooler waters to 
the north of the system may also inhibit significant 
intensification.  The latest intensity guidance has trended lower, 
and the official forecast reflects this change and has been nudged 
down accordingly.  The official intensity forecast remains higher 
than most of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned 
with a blend of the HCCA/FSSE intensity consensus aids and the 
regional hurricane models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 13.8N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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