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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025
 
Kiko continues to gradually become better organized on conventional 
satellite imagery with increasingly impressive curved banding noted 
in 1-minute GOES-18 imagery.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates 
range from 55-65 kt while objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS continue to be in the 45-50 kt range.  Based on a blend of 
the data and improving appearance on satellite imagery over the last 
few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this 
advisory.  

Kiko has been moving toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower 
speed, with an estimated motion of 255/6 kt.  A strengthening 
subtropical ridge to Kiko's north should cause this general motion 
to continue for the next day or so.  After that time, Kiko should 
turn back toward the west due to its position due south of the 
strongest part of the ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, a 
west-northwestward motion is likely as Kiko starts to reach the 
southwestern portion of the ridge's influence.  There is very large 
along-track spread in the guidance, meaning that there is high 
uncertainty in Kiko's forward speed.  The latest guidance has 
trended slower.  The NHC forecast is slower and a bit to the north 
of the previous forecast, but not as slow as most of the latest 
consensus models.  This latest track forecast is fairly close to the 
12Z ECMWF model.

Relatively warm ocean temperatures and light wind shear should allow 
Kiko to steadily strengthen over the next couple of days.  If Kiko 
were to move south of the NHC forecast track, it could encounter 
stronger shear in 1-2 days, as the models show stronger upper level 
winds south of about 13N latitude.  The other factor that 
complicates the intensity forecast is the possibility that some dry 
air tries to entrain into the circulation.  The peak forecast 
intensity has been increased a bit to show a peak of 95 kt in 60-72 
hours.  This is closer to the latest HCCA and high resolution 
hurricane models, some of which bring Kiko to major hurricane 
intensity.  Late in the forecast period, some slight weakening is 
possible due to slightly cooler ocean temperatures and the potential 
for slightly drier and more stable air.  The intensity forecast lies 
near the upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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