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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Kiko has changed little in organization during the past few hours, 
with a broad curved convective band wrapping around the western 
side of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT overpasses did not show 
tropical-storm force winds. However, there may be sampling issues 
at work since the central core of Kiko is small. Satellite 
intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, and the initial 
intensity is held at 35 kt in deference to the scatterometer data.  
The scatterometer data and conventional imagery suggest the 
circulation center is elongated east-west with multiple cloud 
swirls present.

The initial motion remains 270/8 kt.  Kiko is on the south side of 
a deep-layer ridge that covers the tropical Pacific between 
120W-155W, and this feature is expected to persist for the next 
several days. This should cause Kiko to move westward or just south 
of westward through the forecast period.  While the track guidance 
generally agrees on the direction of motion, there is a 
considerable spread in forward speed with the faster UKMET/ECMWF 
being several hundred miles west of the slower GFS by 120 h.  The 
new forecast track splits this speed difference, and it lies just 
north of the consensus models. The new forecast is a bit south 
of and slower than the previous forecast.
 
Kiko is expected to encounter generally light vertical shear while 
it moves over sea surface temperatures that are around 27C. After 
72 h, the cyclone is likely to move into a drier air mass that 
could inhibit strengthening despite the other favorable conditions. 
Based on this, the intensity forecast shows 72 h of strengthening 
followed by little change in strength at 96 and 120 h.  There are 
two uncertainties in this forecast. First, the rapid 
intensification indices of the SHIPS model are notably above their 
climatological norms, and that combined with Kiko's small core 
suggests that a period of rapid intensification could occur during 
the next 72 h.  Second, as mentioned earlier any deviation of the 
track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the 
system over cooler waters that would slow or stop strengthening. The 
new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous 
forecast, and it lies near the intensity consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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