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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A 
0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation 
with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement 
in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current 
intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories 
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial 
intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by 
a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is 
forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining 
a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern 
Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The 
official forecast track is close to the consensus aids.

Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist 
mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady 
strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected 
to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane 
strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s 
track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some 
mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification 
later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to 
higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends 
closer to the consensus thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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