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Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Ivo has become devoid of deep convection as it moves over 
increasingly cooler waters and into a drier air mass.  The current 
intensity estimate is 30 kt which could be a bit generous based on 
partial scatterometer overpasses.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or around 295/9 kt.  Ivo 
should remain embedded in low-level easterly flow for the next day 
or two.  The track forecast is similar to that from the previous 
advisory and very close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, 
solution.

Since the system is expected to traverse even cooler waters during 
the next 36 hours or so, it is unlikely to regenerate significant 
deep convection.  Thus the cyclone will likely become a 
post-tropical remnant low very soon.  The global models depict 
the system opening up into a trough within 48 hours and this is 
reflected in the official forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 22.7N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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