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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025

Ivo is weakening while it passes over the cooler waters well to the 
west of Baja California Sur, and its associated deep convection 
is gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity.  Data from an 
excellent scatterometer overpass just before 0500 UTC showed that 
the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt.  Subjective Dvorak 
analyses from TAFB and SAB, along with objective Dvorak values from 
UW-CIMSS gave a similar intensity estimate, indicating that Ivo is 
now at minimal tropical storm strength.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues to move 
west-northwestward, or at about 285/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level 
ridge is predicted to remain to the north of Ivo during the next 
couple of days.  The system is likely to turn more westward with a 
slight increase in forward speed in a day or so as the increasingly 
shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level easterlies.  
The official forecast track is very similar to the one from the 
previous advisory.

Ivo is moving over cooler waters with gradually decreasing 
environmental moisture.  Therefore weakening should continue, and 
the system will likely degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low 
in 24 hours or so.  The intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous NHC forecast and near the high end of the model guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 21.5N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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