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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025
 
Ivo is having intermittent bursts of deep convection since the last 
advisory.  An ASCAT pass from 0412 UTC showed the center of the 
small circulation near the northeastern edge of the CDO.  Subjective 
and objective satellite intensity estimates have generally decreased 
in recent hours and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for 
this cycle.  

The storm is moving westward at 8 kt.  A general westward to 
west-northwestward motion is anticipated through the forecast period 
while Ivo is steered along the southern side of a ridge positioned 
to its north.  The track guidance has shifted poleward this cycle, 
and the latest official forecast lies on the southern side of the 
envelope between the ECMWF to its south and the simple consensus aid 
TVCE to its north.

Ivo is currently crossing a cooling gradient of sea surface 
temperatures and moving towards a dry and stable airmass.  The storm 
is expected to gradually weaken through the weekend, until it 
becomes a post-tropical cyclone sometime Sunday night or Monday 
morning.  The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted lower based 
on the decrease in initial intensity and is in the middle of the 
guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 20.6N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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