ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025

Corrected T-number in the first paragraph

Ivo seems to be responding to the conducive environmental 
conditions.  Convection has been building within the core of the 
storm and geostationary satellite imagery has depicted a growing 
CDO overnight.  The small storm has managed to elude recent 
scatterometer and microwave overpasses and no new information has 
been collected with respect to the low-level structure. The initial 
intensity is held at 50 kt for this cycle based on persistence, 
which is slightly above the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 
kt.
 
Ivo is moving quickly along the southern periphery of a mid-level 
ridge at 295/18 kt.  The ridge is expected to continue turning the 
storm toward the west during the next couple of days with a 
significant decrease in forward motion.  Ivo is forecast to stay 
well south of the Baja California peninsula.  The latest official 
track forecast lies slightly to the south of the previous prediction 
beyond the 24 h forecast time.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for strengthening 
during the next day or so.  The NHC intensity forecast still brings 
Ivo up to hurricane strength within a day, however this peak lies 
above all the latest model guidance.  It should be noted that this 
portion of the forecast has higher-than-average uncertainty due to 
the high spread in the model guidance.  Beyond 24 hours, the model 
and official forecasts come into better agreement when Ivo moves 
over cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable 
environment with moderate vertical wind shear.  The system is still 
expected to become a remnant low within a few day and open into a 
trough by the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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