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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025
 
While Ivo has a compact core with a concentrated area of convection, 
the overall cloud pattern appears disorganized and lacks banding 
features. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, near the high end of 
the latest satellite intensity estimates and in agreement with the 
earlier ASCAT data. Some of the associated thunderstorms are 
brushing the coast of southwestern Mexico, likely bringing areas of 
heavy rain and gusty winds. Ivo's tropical-storm-force winds remain 
offshore near the tiny core, and are estimated to only extend about 
40 n mi from the center.

The storm continues to move quickly to the northwest at 19 kt on the 
south side of a strong mid-level ridge situated over the 
southwestern U.S. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift 
slightly westward during the next few days. As a result, Ivo is 
forecast to turn to the west-northwest and then the west with a 
notable decrease in forward speed. This motion should take Ivo away 
from mainland Mexico and well south of the Baja California 
peninsula. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and 
near the middle of the guidance envelope. 

The large-scale conditions appear quite favorable for strengthening 
during the next day or so with warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, 
and high mid-level relative humidities. However, it is possible that 
Ivo might not take advantage of those conditions given its current 
ragged structure. There is considerable divergence in the intensity 
models with the dynamical-statistical aids showing significant 
strengthening while the global and HAFS guidance show little to no 
intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous 
one and leans closer to the high end of the guidance in the short 
term, but this is of low confidence. Regardless of what occurs in 
the next 24 hours, weakening should begin over the weekend when Ivo 
is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into an 
air mass of drier air and stronger shear.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 19.7N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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