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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025
 
Ivo's satellite presentation is that of a storm that is steadily 
intensifying.  Deep convection has been continuously forming while 
the central deep overcast has been expanding through the evening.  
However, overnight scatterometer data from 0412 UTC revealed a 
dubious, at best, low-level circulation. The data suggests that 
even though the mid-level rotation appears robust, the low-level 
flow has yet to reflect such organization, likely due to Ivo's rapid 
forward motion.  The intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest 
satellite-derived wind data.

The motion is estimated to be 295/20 kt.  Ivo is racing along the 
southern side of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States.  This motion is expected to continue 
for the next day or so which should keep the tropical cyclone 
moving parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of southwestern 
Mexico.  Around 36 h, Ivo is expected to turn more westward and slow 
down.  The latest NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the 
previous forecast and lies between the various consensus aids.
 
Ivo is still forecast to steadily strengthen over then next day or 
so.  Moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, 
and a moist environment should provide the necessary conditions for 
the cyclone to reach hurricane status within the next couple of 
days.  Ivo is expected to cross over cooler waters by 72 h, which 
should induce a gradual weakening trend.  Global models predict 
increasing shear will separate the cyclone from deep convection and 
Ivo is now forecast to become post-tropical by 96 h.  The official 
intensity forecast remains at the high end of the model guidance.
 
The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to
remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and
rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of
Mexico during the next day or so.  Outer bands of Ivo are expected 
to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states 
of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. Flash 
flooding is possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 15.9N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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