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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
900 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025

Ivo's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized but the 
convective banding features are not yet well defined.  Very cold 
cloud tops to -70 deg C or colder are evident, primarily over the 
northern portion of the circulation.  The upper-level outflow 
pattern is fairly well defined over the system, but outflow is 
restricted over the northeastern quadrant.  The current intensity 
estimate is kept at 35 kt for now, in agreement with a subjective 
Dvorak classification from TAFB and most objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS.

Blending center fixes from SAB and TAFB give a swift 
west-northwestward motion of around 295/19 kt, as in the 
previous advisory.  There is a strong 500 mb high situated to the 
north of Ivo, which is predicted to remain in place for the next 
couple of days.  This should keep the tropical cyclone on a 
west-northwestward track, parallel to, but offshore of, the coast 
of southwestern Mexico.  Beyond 24-36 hours, Ivo should turn a bit 
to the left with decreasing forward speed while moving away from 
Mexico.  The official track forecast is very similar to the 
previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.

For the next couple of days, Ivo should be in an environment of 
moderate vertical shear, fairly warm waters and high low- to 
mid-level humidity.  Therefore strengthening is likely and the 
system is predicted to become a hurricane by late this week.  Later 
in the forecast period, the system should be traversing cooler 
waters which is likely to reduce the cyclone to a remnant low in 5 
days.  The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the 
model guidance.
 
The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to
remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and
rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of
Mexico during the next day or two.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.0N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.3N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.2N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 19.7N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.4N 112.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 20.8N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 21.0N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 21.4N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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