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Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 11 2025
 
Henriette's inner core has deteriorated during the past several
hours.  Microwave overpasses from the Space Operations Command 
(SpOC) WSF-M1 and an ISS TEMPEST-D CubeSat imager revealed a 
collapsed, partial eyewall in the eastern half of the cyclone and 
fragmented curved bands in the southwest and northeast quadrants.  
Subjective intensity estimates from PGTW (17th OWS), PHFO, and SAB, 
a 0710 UTC SATCON analysis of 64 kt and a blend of the UW-CIMSS 
objective intensity techniques yield a lowered initial intensity of 
65 kt.
 
Henriette is moving beneath a region of upper-level convergence
between an upper-tropospheric low to the northwest of the cyclone
and an upper-level anticyclone to the northeast.  This inhibiting
dynamic contribution, along with increasing northerly shear and 
progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures, should cause 
Henriette to weaken quickly through the remainder of the period.  
The majority of the deterministic models predict that Henriette 
should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday 
and open up into a trough over the central north Pacific by the 
weekend.  Accordingly, quick weakening is indicated in the NHC 
forecast and resembles the previous one, and is very close to the 
LGEM and just above the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/14 kt.
Henriette should continue moving in this general heading during the
next couple of days in the mid-level steering flow provided by a
subtropical ridge to Henriette's northeast and a mid- to 
upper-level low located northwest of the cyclone.  Afterward, a 
weakened, vertically shallow Henriette should turn toward the 
north-northwest then to the north while rounding the western 
periphery of a low- to mid-level high to the east.  The new track 
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies 
close to the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 31.7N 160.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 33.1N 161.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 35.0N 164.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 37.0N 166.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 39.2N 169.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  14/1800Z 41.3N 169.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 43.2N 169.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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