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Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025

Henriette now has a compact Central Dense Overcast, with a dimple 
noted in visible satellite imagery where a small eye could be 
attempting to form, surrounded by a long spiral band.  Subjective 
and objective satellite intensity estimates are relatively 
unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity is still 
assumed to be around 75 kt.

The initial motion is also unchanged--northwestward, or 310/16 kt.  
The track guidance is tightly packed for the next 48-60 hours, with 
Henriette expected to continue moving northwestward between a 
mid-level low northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and a large ridge 
centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest United States.  
There is more significant spread after 60 hours, related to whether 
or not Henriette gets picked up by a shortwave trough near the 
Aleutian Islands (and turns eastward, as in the GFS) or gets left 
behind and continues northward (as in the ECWMF).  The new NHC 
track forecast is a little east of the previous prediction at the 
end of the forecast, leaning toward the new consensus aids.
 
Some intensification is still possible during the next 12 hours or 
so while there remains some favorable divergence aloft, and the NHC 
intensity forecast reflects that potential.  By 24 hours, 
upper-level convergence, increasing northerly to northwesterly 
shear, and cooling sea surface temperatures are expected to induce 
weakening.  Henriette could lose its organized deep convection, and 
thus become post-tropical, in about 60 hours, with the remnant low 
likely dissipating by day 5 over the far northern Pacific.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 29.8N 157.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 31.4N 159.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 33.3N 162.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 35.2N 164.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 37.3N 167.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 39.4N 169.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/1800Z 41.4N 170.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z 43.8N 169.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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