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Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 10 2025

Henriette's appearance on satellite imagery is similar to 6 hours 
ago.  The hurricane has maintained a visible eye on geostationary 
imagery since about 1800 UTC (9 hours ago).  The east eyewall is a 
bit thin, and some dry air may be attempting to entrain into the 
circulation east of the center.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
estimates are a consensus 4.0/65 kt from JTWC, PHFO and SAB.  
Objective DPRINT and SATCON values from UW-CIMSS have been running 
in the 65-70 kt range for the past several hours.  The initial 
intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.
 
Henriette is currently over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 
26C, and the SSTs along the cyclone's path should peak close to 27C 
in 24-36 h.  The hurricane will encounter its coldest upper-level 
temperatures in about 18-24 h as it passes east of a large mid- to 
upper-level trough.  This means that despite environmental dry 
air, Henriette will still have access to plenty of instability for 
another day or so.  The NHC forecast continues to call for 
additional strengthening, and is at the high end of the guidance for 
the first 36 h.  After that time, vertical wind shear is expected to 
increase and SSTs will decrease along Henriette's path as it gains 
latitude, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope from day 2 onward.  The shear and colder water should cause 
the cyclone to lose its convection and become post-tropical in 60 to 
72 h, with the low dissipating in about 4 days.
 
The hurricane is moving northwestward at 14 kt in between a large 
ridge to its northeast and the aforementioned trough to its 
northwest.  These features will continue steering Henriette rather 
quickly toward the northwest for several days until dissipation.  
Only very minor changes were made to the previous official forecast, 
which lies near the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 26.8N 153.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 28.4N 155.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 30.5N 158.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 32.6N 161.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 34.7N 163.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 36.6N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 38.5N 168.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  15/0000Z 42.1N 169.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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