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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Aug 09 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Henriette's curved band of convection 
on the west side of the circulation has fragmented with warming tops 
in recent hours, though some redevelopment has begun near and 
northwest of the center more recently. An AMSR2 pass at 2130 UTC 
confirmed a well-organized low-level structure, and a 2012 UTC 
ASCAT-C pass showed peak winds of about 35 kt, consistent with 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 
35 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is northwest at 12 kt, steered by a subtropical 
ridge to the northeast and an amplifying mid-latitude trough to the 
northwest. This motion should persist through early next week, 
keeping Henriette well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Guidance 
indicates the sharp upper trough will cut off into an upper low on 
Monday and retrograde westward, a pattern that should maintain 
Henriette’s northwestward motion. The updated forecast is very 
similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly 
clustered consensus aids.
 
Sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track should gradually 
warm from near 25 C to around 26–27 C through 60 h. Despite the 
presence of dry mid- to upper-level air, a combination of warmer 
waters and increasing upper-level divergence associated with an 
upper trough to the northwest should enhance outflow and support 
gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast continues to show a peak 
near 55 kt in the 48–60 h period, nearly identical to the previous 
forecast and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Thereafter, 
cooler waters, increasing shear, and diminishing upper-level outflow 
should result in steady weakening, with Henriette expected to become 
a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h as it is 
absorbed into the mid-latitude flow.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 23.0N 149.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 24.2N 150.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 26.2N 152.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 28.3N 155.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 30.5N 158.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 32.7N 160.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 34.9N 163.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 38.8N 166.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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