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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 09 2025
 
Deep convection has evolved a bit since the previous advisory with
a curved band wrapping around the west side of Henriette.  The
latest subjective Dvorak classifications range from 25-30 kt, and
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging
between 35-37 kt.  Based mainly on the objective estimates, it is
estimated that Henriette has regained tropical storm strength with
maximum winds estimated at 35 kt.
 
Henriette is moving a little faster now in a direction between
west-northwest and northwest, at 14 kt.  Henriette will round the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge tonight as a
deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaches from the west.  In a
couple of days, the trough will become stationary or even retrograde
westward.  This steering pattern favors a continued northwestward
motion through the forecast period.  The new NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one, but along a similar track line,
and is in agreement with the consensus aids.
 
Henriette will move over gradually warming sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs) and through gradually cooling upper-level temperatures now
through the next 60 h or so.  SSTs currently near 25C are forecast
to warm to the 26.5 to 27C range along the cyclone's path.  The 
cyclone is also currently embedded in very dry mid-tropospheric 
air, and these dry conditions are expected to persist for the next 
couple of days.  Given the competing factors mentioned above, slow 
strengthening seems likely over the next couple of days.  The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is 
near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Beyond day 3, wind shear 
should increase, and Henriette will also reach cooler water again 
as it gains latitude.  These factors should cause the system to 
lose its convection and become post-tropical by day 4, with 
dissipation in about 5 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 22.3N 148.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 23.3N 149.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 25.1N 151.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 27.2N 154.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 29.3N 156.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 31.4N 159.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 33.5N 162.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 37.7N 166.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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