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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
500 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025
 
Henriette continues to hang in there despite straddling 25 C 
sea-surface temperatures. Since the prior advisory, a little more 
convection has redeveloped close to the estimated center, though 
overall the appearance of the tropical storm is still rather ragged 
looking. The current intensity estimate from TAFB has not changed 
for 12 UTC at 45 kt. In deference to this value and earlier 
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 45 
kt this advisory. 

The tropical storm continues to move westward, or 280 degrees at 14 
kt. This general motion will continue through today, followed by a 
turn west-northwestward and then more northwestward due to the 
influence of a subtropical ridge to its north that will become 
gradually eroded by a large mid-oceanic trough amplifying over the 
North-Central Pacific in 2-3 days. The track guidance is essentially 
a carbon copy of the previous cycle, and only slight changes were 
made to the official track forecast. This forecast lies near the 
various multi-model consensus aids. 

Henriette is already moving over cool ocean waters, which are 
expected to cool to 24C over the next 12-24 hours. While it would 
not be surprising to see a little more weakening over the short 
term, the storm has proven to be resilient thus far. Another 
environmental factor to consider is the upper-level temperatures, 
which are colder than normal due to a negatively tilted upper-level 
trough to the storm's west. This trough might help to sustain some 
convection over what would ordinarily be waters too cool to allow 
such activity to persist. Once Henriette begins to move over warmer 
ocean waters again in the Central Pacific west of 150W, the other 
environmental factors are expected to remain favorable, and 
intensification is shown in the latter half of the forecast period. 
In fact, Henriette could become a hurricane in 96-120 h well to the 
north of Hawaii. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little 
higher than the prior advisory, though there remain some guidance 
aids that are even higher than the NHC forecast at the end of the 
period (HAFS-B). 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 18.6N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.0N 137.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 19.5N 140.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 20.2N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 21.4N 146.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 22.7N 148.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 24.3N 151.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 28.0N 155.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 31.5N 160.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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