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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025
 
Satellite images indicate that a small burst of deep convection has 
developed just to the northwest of Henriette’s low-level center this 
evening, after several hours with not much more than a shallow cloud 
swirl.  The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate 
from TAFB was 3.0/45 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 
ranged between 32 to 42 kt over the past several hours.  A timely 
07/0645Z Metop-C ASCAT pass depicted several 40 kt wind barbs, with 
a single 40–45 kt wind barb noted north of the low-level center.  
The initial intensity for this advisory will be held at 45 kt, 
utilizing the ASCAT data while accounting for some undersampling and 
a known low bias at higher speeds. 

The cyclone is moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 14 kt. This 
general motion is expected to persist through Thursday, as Henriette 
continues to be steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its 
north.  A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and eventually 
northwest is anticipated Friday and over the weekend, as an 
amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii begins to erode the 
western extent of the subtropical ridge. The northwestward motion is 
expected to continue into early next week.  The official track 
forecast remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model 
consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous advisory.

Henriette will be moving over gradually cooling sea surface 
temperatures near 24C, while the environmental humidities 
surrounding the cyclone will drop below 50 percent.  Despite these 
hostile thermodynamic conditions, Henriette’s well-established 
circulation is likely to remain resilient due to the low-shear 
environment the cyclone will be transiting through.  As a result, 
only a slight weakening is forecast tonight, followed by little 
change in strength during the next few days.  If Henriette can 
survive the passage over the cool waters, as persistently suggested 
by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days now, re-intensification 
appears likely over the weekend and into early next week as sea 
surface temperatures warm to levels conducive for strengthening.  
The official forecast continues to reflect this, bringing Henriette 
to hurricane strength by 120 hours.  The intensity forecast is 
mostly unchanged and remains aligned best with the dynamical 
intensity consensus aid HCCA and the regional hurricane models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 18.4N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 18.6N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 19.1N 139.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 19.8N 142.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 20.7N 145.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 21.9N 147.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 23.3N 150.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 26.9N 154.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 30.2N 158.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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