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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
500 PM HST Tue Aug 05 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Henriette had remained rather ragged 
for several hours since the previous advisory, however, a new burst 
of deep convection has now developed just to the west of the 
low-level center of the cyclone.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 
2.5/35 kt respectively.  Meanwhile, the objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS have ranged from 34 to 47 kt during the past several hours. 
Earlier today, a 05/1815Z Metop-C ASCAT pass showed several 45 knot 
wind barbs to the north of the low level center and a 05/2133Z AMRS2 
pass revealed a nice inner core structure of the cyclone.  Based on 
these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 
45 kt.

The cyclone is moving west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 14 kt.  A 
slight turn toward the west is expected tonight, with this motion 
then continuing for the next several days as Henriette is steered by 
a strengthening subtropical ridge to the north.  By 72 hours, a turn 
toward the west-northwest is anticipated as an amplifying longwave 
trough northwest of Hawaii erodes the western extent of the 
subtropical ridge steering the cyclone.  The official track forecast 
closely follows a blend of the latest consensus guidance, and is 
very close to the previous advisory.

Henriette will remain in a low shear environment during the next 
several days, while sea surface temperatures gradually cool to near 
or slightly below 24C and the mid-level moisture decreases below 50 
percent.  Despite the cooling water and drying mid-levels, the large 
circulation of the system and the well-established inner core should 
keep Henriette rather resilient in the very low shear environment 
during the next several days.  The intensity forecast only calls for 
slight weakening during this time followed by little change in 
strength.  By late in the forecast period, sea surface temperatures 
will begin to increase, and if the cyclone manages to survive the 
trip over the cooler water as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models, 
some re-intensification is possible and the official forecast 
reflects this.  The intensity forecast is near the middle of the 
intensity guidance envelope and most closely aligned with the IVCN 
intensity aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.9N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.3N 132.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 18.6N 135.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 19.0N 138.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 19.6N 141.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 20.5N 143.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.8N 148.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 25.1N 153.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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