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Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025
 
Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus, 
it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the 
remaining deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates have 
continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35-45 
kt, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45-55 kt.  The advisory 
intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of these numbers.  An 
earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 40 kt in the southwestern 
quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be 
stronger winds, was not sampled.

ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little 
west of where it was placed this morning.  Still, the storm has 
turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 kt.  
Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and 
speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the 
north-northwest on Thursday.  This track will take Cosme over 
progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable 
environment.  Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear, 
these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and 
ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose 
its deep convection overnight.  As a result, the NHC official 
forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with 
dissipation now expected by 60 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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